Blog: US-Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz— but full container shipping recovery at least three months away / Xeneta data shows 10% of global container shipping fleet impacted by blockade, with spot rates up +192% on Asia-US trades and +106% into North Europe The US-Iran deal should allow a return of container shipping to the Strait of Hormuz, but the scale of disruption caused by the blockade means, even a best-case scenario, puts a recovery of ocean supply chain networks at mid-September 2026 and spot rates rising for at least another four weeks before the market peaks. “This agreement should be greeted with realism and extreme caution,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta – the ocean and air freight intelligence platform. “Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.” The Scale of Disruption Before the crisis, 99 container services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf, deploying a combined nominal capacity of 3.2 million TEU – around 10% of the global container fleet. Only 11 services remain active due to the blockade — 10 operating intra-Arabian Gulf and one dedicated Iran-China service — representing just 74,000 TEU of active capacity in the region. (....)