India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record ₹3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of ₹1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.