Trump's promises of an economic golden age are being tested as American households continue to worry about everyday expenses. Cracks in his 2024 voter coalition, opposition to his policies and concerns over the war with Iran could further complicate the Republican campaign. But counting Trump out would be premature. Republicans are banking on his ability to mobilise supporters, while Democrats must turn voter frustration into actual electoral victories. In this explainer, we examine Trump's midterm strategy, the cost-of-living crisis, key battleground races and the fight for control of Congress. Could the elections trigger a Democratic comeback, or will Trump defy expectations once again?