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No, exercise is not a panacea for depression. But neither is medication or therapy. And … That 2x figure comes from former elite athletes (PMID: 39720148). We have no idea if those people still exercised (also: retirement sucks!). A recent meta-analysis found no difference in mental health between elite athletes and general pop (PMID: 42425758) "Elite" is the key word. Elite athletes are ~0.1% of the general population—and being elite involves all sorts of factors that could drive up mental health issues. Being elite may even select for people who already have mental health issues. For the general population—i.e., not elite athletes—exercise does seem to meaningfully reduce depressive symptoms (assuming a person can bring themselves to do it). It’s also free, and it improves physical health.