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The 2026 monsoon comes with a clear warning: Rainfall is forecast at 92% of the long-period average, with higher-than-usual probability of deficient or below-normal outcomes. El Niño conditions are also likely to develop during the season, though peak intensity may arrive only after the monsoon withdraws. For India, this is not a simple weather story. A weak or uneven monsoon can affect kharif output, food inflation, rural consumption, fiscal spending, bond yields, and the RBI’s policy choices. The risk is not a catastrophe. It is a familiar macro chain reaction.