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Israel entered the conflict expecting Iran to buckle under pressure, but the outcome is unfolding into a political shockwave of its own. As reports point to a U.S.–Iran agreement framework involving sanctions relief and oil export waivers, questions are emerging over shifting alliances and strategic miscalculations. Instead of a decisive breakthrough, the situation has exposed limits, miscalculations, and unexpected resilience on all sides. What was meant to cement dominance is now being debated as a strategic setback with far-reaching consequences for Israel, the United States, and the broader Middle East. This new Times Explains episode decodes how Iran and the U.S. are set to sign a historic deal - and why Benjamin Netanyahu emerges as the biggest loser.