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Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have created a collective-defence pact. One major Arab military is conspicuously absent: Egypt. That is especially striking because Cairo had joined the three countries in regional consultations before the Mecca agreement was signed. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says Egypt remains a “natural partner” and could eventually enter the alliance after technical issues are resolved. So why has Cairo not joined already? India could be part of the calculation. India-Egypt defence ties are expanding rapidly, with joint special-forces exercises, military exchanges, maritime-security cooperation and discussions on defence co-development and co-production. Pakistan’s membership therefore complicates Egypt’s decision. Cairo may not want an India-Pakistan crisis testing its collective-defence obligations. But India is only one factor: Egypt also values strategic autonomy and has its own complicated relationships with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel.